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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Who voted for Obama?

I had a great opportunity yesterday to spend time with a candidate for the U.S. Senate representaing Ohio. I have known Rob Portman for nearly 15 years, and he is a class act. Rob spent a lot of time talking about what he is hearing from Ohioans as he travels around the state. The recurring themes seem concentrated on job security, the economy, and how government regulation and it's impact on job security and the economy. We also discussed the Virginia and New Jersey elections and what impact those elections may or may not have for decisions that will be made by Congress in the near future (Health Care Reform and Cap & Trade). As I have thought for some time, Democrats who carry the water for Obama in Congress need to feel that being associated with him is a poilitcal asset. When they no longer see Obama as an asset, they are more likely to question their votes on legislation, effectively asking themselves "Is voting for this going to help or hurt my chances of getting reelected." I decide to look into who voted for Obama, and how are they feeling right now about their support for him. This is an oversimplification, but this is a rough profile:

  • First time voters more likely to vote for Obama (are they now disillusioned by Obamas performance?)
  • Younger (18-29) voters were significantly more likely to vote for Obama vs. other age groups (ditto)
  • Black and Hispanic/Latino voters were significantly more likely to vote for Obama vs. Whites (are they better off than they were 11 months ago?)
  • Females were more likely to vote for Obama, but both were more likely to vote for Obama than McCain (is the Honeymoon over?)
Exit polls indicate that the most important election issue (60% responded this way) was the Economy. It is very interesting that the Economy, Jobs and Taxes were central issues for the loss in New Jersey by a pro Obama candidate. Is New Jersey a laboratory for future elections? It's not out of the question that it is relevent to future elections. Returning to my discussion with Rob, I asked about a recent Rasmussen poll that indicated that Americans give Republicans higher marks than Democrats in 10 key electoral issues - Economic, National Security, Trust, Ethics, Healthcare, Taxes, Immigration, Social Security, Education and Abortion. Unfortunately, the Republicans have become the "Party of No" because of Obama's agenda. Rob's view is that we need to say "No," but we also need to say "... and here is how we should do it." If we can redefine ourselves (I know we can), from "No" to "Show," the impact of the recent elections will gain momentum into 2010, and we will on track to take back our country from the far left. Conservatives need to take back the Republican party. If we can do that, we may be able to give our children a country in better shape than we found it.

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